{"id":19980,"date":"2024-08-20T14:00:27","date_gmt":"2024-08-20T17:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/?p=19980"},"modified":"2024-08-20T12:36:48","modified_gmt":"2024-08-20T15:36:48","slug":"respecting-the-grey-swan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/livros\/respecting-the-grey-swan\/","title":{"rendered":"Respecting the Grey Swan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-19981\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/respecting-the-grey-swan.jpg\" alt=\"Respecting the Grey Swan\" width=\"145\" height=\"205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/respecting-the-grey-swan.jpg 145w, https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/respecting-the-grey-swan-106x150.jpg 106w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 145px) 100vw, 145px\" \/>AON &#8211; Pentland Analytics<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #003366;\"><strong>R\u00e9sum\u00e9:<\/strong><\/span> Extreme events can be difficult to analyse. For a start, there\u2019s not much data. Uncertainty is high as are the values. The data tend to be noisy, ambiguous and complex. And that\u2019s before we consider our natural capacity for biased interpretation. We can agree perhaps that an evidence-based study of events that don\u2019t happen very often is not without its challenges.<br \/>\nThe global impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has reminded us all of the challenges we face in managing extreme events. In Taleb\u2019s thought-provoking book, he focuses on \u201cBlack Swan\u201d events which he defines by their rarity, extreme impact and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. Black Swan events are extremely rare. They have yet to be imagined. They are the unknown unknowns with unpredictable causes.<br \/>\nIn this paper, we focus on their lesser known cousins, the Grey Swans, occasionally referenced and seldom defined. These too are rare but we know that they exist, and they are not so rare that we cannot make sense of them. They offer us rich opportunities for learning. Offered herein are a few observations, based on Pentland Analytics\u2019 unique and proprietary Reputation Crisis Databank of Grey Swan events. The database currently includes 300 corporate reputation crises from the last 40 years. Each of these reputation Grey Swans has been analysed, its impact on shareholder value modelled and the drivers of recovery identified.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/respecting-the-grey-swan.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-12143 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/download_fr.gif\" alt=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger\" width=\"107\" height=\"25\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AON &#8211; Pentland Analytics R\u00e9sum\u00e9: Extreme events can be difficult to analyse. For a start, there\u2019s not much data. Uncertainty is high as are the values. The data tend to be noisy, ambiguous and complex. And that\u2019s before we consider our natural capacity for biased interpretation. We can agree perhaps that an evidence-based study of events that don\u2019t happen very often is not without its challenges. The global impact of&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":19981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51,6,19,112],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english","category-livros","category-risco-e-perdas","category-download"],"views":128,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19980"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19980\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19982,"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19980\/revisions\/19982"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bibliotecadeseguranca.com.br\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}